ABSTRACT

1 INTRODUCTION

The high rates of business closures and unemployment, along with the equally high prevalence of criminal offences, raise concern in the country's socio-economic context. Although society, or rather state mechanisms, are trying to achieve their development objectives, the situation seems to have remained the same over the years. This result stems from an analysis of the study data, which form the basis of this study. Consequently, to address the study objectives, we will approach the research and analysis process not only from a theoretical perspective on fundamental issues of interest, but also by systematically analysing statistical data and presenting and interpreting them in detail.

The study will include criminological aspects of the closure of businesses in our country, as well as the possible implications for the increase in unemployment in the country, and also the possible effect on the increase in criminal offences in the country, all of which will be treated in the context of the cause-and-effect relationship.

The theoretical context will review recent research literature, while the empirical context will present and analyse statistical data covering 2021 to 2025. However, as has been observed throughout studying this topic, it can be emphasised that, from a scientific perspective, the chosen topic constitutes a topic of interest for study; there is a significant lack of scientific treatment of such a study connection in the country, and it has been deemed necessary to conduct more scientific debates about this sensitive socio-economic and state topic. From a state policy perspective, the topic shows room to raise awareness, respond, and improve citizens' lives socially, economically, and politically.

2 STUDY OBJECTIVES AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

This study will provide a theoretical and practical treatment of business closures in the country and their socio-economic impact, including the possible implications of increased unemployment and rising criminogenic factors. Consequently, the objectives of this study are already clear and include:

1. Review of basic literature that has a direct connection to addressing business closures, unemployment, and the presence of criminal offences in the country.
2. Monitoring the possible implications of the closure of businesses on the high unemployment rate and the emergence of criminogenic factors in society.
3. The presentation of accurate, clear data in a single study, in a way not previously done, on the current trend of business closures in the country, the identification of the unemployment rate, as well as the number of people convicted of criminal offences in the country.
4. From the literature reviewed and the statistical data presented, identify potential shortcomings and areas where improvements can be made. Conclusions and recommendations are offered at the end of this study, which can not only stimulate debate among experts in the field but also serve as a basis for relevant institutions to reflect, improve, and change.

It can be noted that

“the world, and with it all of humanity, throughout the history of its existence, continue to face numerous challenges and problems of various natures, which is why man has made continuous efforts to solve these issues in various ways.”¹

In this regard, Kosovar society continues to face numerous challenges and problems, although efforts to overcome them continue. One challenge that has not been sufficiently addressed is the closure of businesses in the country, which continues at a high level year after year. Consequently, this economic and social challenge could also contribute to rising unemployment or, at least, make it harder to solve the problem of unemployment for the creative entities behind such businesses, who, in creating them, have already tried to overcome it.

Meanwhile, from

“poverty assessment: based on income data and the poverty line of 1.85 EUR per person per day, the poverty rate in 2023 is estimated to be 16%, compared to 17.6% in 2022 and 14.5% in 2021. In other words, each year’s percentage of families living below the poverty threshold of 1.85 EUR per day fell below 10%, and the share of

households living below the threshold was considerably lower in 2023 than in 2021, showing a decline from the previous year. Compared to 2021, in 2023, an additional 10% of surveyed families were living below the threshold of 1.85 EUR per day when adjusted for price increases,”²

and also

“inflation has increased indebtedness among households, as they rely on loans and credit cards to meet financial needs.”³

Therefore, it can be considered that poverty and “the unemployment rate is typically found to increase property crime.”⁴

Furthermore,

“individuals with potentially better current and future opportunities in the legal labour market are less likely to commit crime. One determinant of these opportunities in the labour market is the unemployment rate, which fluctuates over the business cycle. During a recession, when the unemployment rate goes up, employment chances in the legal labour market diminish. As long as the employment prospects of individuals are influenced by the legal labour market conditions, the changes in the unemployment rate will impact the crime rate which is an aggregation of individuals’ criminal activities. During times of high unemployment, the relative benefit of working in the legal labour market for an individual decreases on the margin, increasing the crime rate in the country.”⁵

However, we must emphasise that,

“while unemployment is a ‘cancer’ for all societies, especially for countries emerging from war, the structure of the economy during such events is characterised by a transitional economy, as in the case of Kosovo, where unemployment rates are higher compared to countries in the region.”⁶

Consequently, the closure of businesses and the increase in the number of unemployed people, as well as the inability to meet even the basic personal and family needs of individuals, can be considered factors influencing the emergence of other criminogenic factors. Several theories of criminality emphasise economic causes as the reason for the appearance of deviant behaviour in society. Therefore, it is considered that “deteriorating economic conditions affect social strain.”⁷

One of these theories is the theory of anomie, according to which "the situation that is created in society, when people, especially the broad and poor strata, fail to realise their goals, when in the struggle of competition and penetration, some fail”⁸ can be the reason for the appearance of deviant behaviours in society.

On the other hand, according to social disorganisation theory,

“social disorganisation refers to the inability of a community to realise common goals and solve chronic problems. According to the theory, poverty, residential mobility, ethnic heterogeneity, and weak social networks decrease a neighbourhood’s capacity to control the behaviour of people in public, and hence increase the likelihood of crime”⁹

so,

"this disorganisation is particularly present in conditions of great social mobility, of a great movement of society, population, great migrations of citizens from rural regions to urban regions, from small centres to large industrial centres, etc. This movement also encourages the mentality of consumption, the competition for prestige and for profit, the uncompromising struggle for the creation of capital, material well-being, etc. Often, in these competitions and in this uncompromising struggle, many people fail to satisfy their desires, realise their plans, realise their dreams, etc.”¹⁰

At the same time, this can also affect the appearance of deviant behaviours in society. However, in this study, such a link cannot be tested directly due to the specific nature of the thematic matter and particularly because the empirical data do not directly measure social disorganisation and its causal impact on business closures, although business closures can be interpreted through this study as a phenomenon potentially linked to conditions of existing social disorganisation.

At the same time, we also must not leave aside the treatment of the reasonableness of the appearance of criminality in society, elaborated according to the crime opportunity theory, according to which “a perceived crime opportunity is when the perceived benefits outweigh the perceived costs of committing crime, and perceptions vary between individuals. Reducing actual or perceived crime opportunities occurs by modifying actual or perceived costs and benefits, respectively”.¹¹ Consequently,

“the decrease in income and potential earnings associated with involuntary unemployment increases the relative returns of illegal activity. Moreover, workers that experience chronic joblessness have less to lose in the event of an arrest and incarceration. Hence, straightforward economic reasoning suggests that unemployment is an important determinant of the supply of criminal offenders and hence, the overall crime rate.”¹²

Looking at the problem from another academic angle,

“unemployment is a major challenge all countries face especially in transition countries as our country.”¹³ Moreover, extremely worrying is the fact that “economic and political instability, together with low job opportunities at home, are some of the main push factors encouraging the educated and highly skilled to emigrate.”¹⁴

Meanwhile, to avoid unemployment, a many people, especially young people, choose migration. As a process,

“migration offers a potential solution for advanced EU economies to meet labour market shortages but creates a potential drain on labour market resources in Kosovo and other emerging economies”.¹⁵

Consequently, another harmful gap is being created in the country, which has to do with the fact that today

“in many cases the recruited personnel are not the best graduates, as they prefer to work in international institutions, the financial sector and public administration, where salaries are higher.”¹⁶

As a result, professionally prepared people continue their careers abroad.

Another fact is that

“in parallel, gender inequality in the labour market remains a persistent challenge in Kosovo, particularly in the private sector and family-owned businesses, where women remain underrepresented as employers and entrepreneurs.”¹⁷

Above all, it is clear that, today, “the regulation of mutual relations within the economic market is achieved by applying the law on competition.”¹⁸ On the other hand, “a university degree is not a sufficient criterion for employment, but what matters instead are the practical experiences of graduates, transferable skills and the compatibility of the graduate’s professional profile with market requirements,”¹⁹ although “the nepotism and corruption are among the most serious barriers to institutional and economic development in transitional countries, including Kosovo.” (sic)²⁰

Although “the fundamental purpose of business strategy is to direct companies towards sustainable sources of growth and profit,”²¹ measured state intervention is necessary to fulfil that purpose. Furthermore, “markets and government intervention respond jointly to unemployment when creating new jobs”.²² Consequently, concrete strategies, combined with adequate legal and practical support, can create socio-economic stability. 16 Ines Dika, ‘Largimi i trurit dhe faktorët që ndikojnë’ (2023) 2 Revista Shqiptare Social Ekonomike 83. 17 Shpëtim Memishi, ‘Family Economic Inequality and Gender Dynamics in Kosovo: Resource Allocation, Unpaid Work, and Decision-Making (2019–2024)’ (2026) 7(1) Architecture Image Studies 1009 <https://doi.org/10.62754/ais.v7i1.977> accessed 24 June 2026. 18 Teuta Beka, ‘Konkurrenca dhe Konsumatori në Kosovë’ (Book of proceedings 3-rd ICIS: Third International Conference on: “Interdisciplinary Studies”, 5 March 2016) 197. 19 Xhavit Rexhaj, Arberesha Qerimi, and Fidan Qerimi, ‘The Impact of Higher Education on Youth Employability in Kosovo: Key Determinants Affecting the Interface Between Higher Education Provision and Labor Market Needs’ (2026) 6 Open Research Europe 4 <https://doi.org/ 10.12688/openreseurope.21616.2> accessed 24 June 2026. 20 Arsim Gjinovci and Dren Gjinovci, ‘Favoritism Practices, Nepotism, and Corruption in Public Administration: Impacts on Employment, Meritocracy, Efficiency, and Institutional Trust. An Institutional and Governance Perspective in Transitional Public Sectors’ (2026) 3(2) European Journal of Management, Economics and Business 202-3 <https://doi.org/10.59324/ ejmeb.2026.3(2).15> accessed 24 June 2026. 21 Ira Gjika and Rudina Qurku, ‘Economic Policies to Help SMEs in the Face of Covid-19, Experiences and Suggestions’ (Covid - 19 Economy Impact: Book of Proceedings, Mediterranean University, 2020) 133. 22 Liliana Harding and Mihaela Neamţu, ‘A Dynamic Model of Unemployment with Migration and Delayed Policy Intervention’ (2018) 51 Computational Economics 427 <https://doi.org/10.1007/ s10614-016-9610-3> accessed 24 June 2026.

However, long-standing political problems in the country also have a direct, negative effect on society and the economy. This situation also fundamentally affects the country's broader migration patterns, especially among young people. Therefore,

“political actors must overcome the prolonged political deadlock and address the numerous challenges of reforms related to the rule of law, including the independence of the judiciary and structural socio-economic reforms that address the high level of unemployment.”²³

One thing to keep in mind is that business closures directly cause job losses, reduce citizens' incomes, reduce capital, limit investment opportunities, and directly reduce the state's public revenues.

Finally, “while young and adolescent firms predominantly fail due to internal shortcomings, mature small and medium-sized enterprises struggle more with increased competition and economic slowdowns”.²⁴ Consequently, the state should pay special attention to creating new businesses and supporting them.

Given the topic’s special nature, the study used descriptive, correlational, and comparative methods within a quantitative framework. The study applied descriptive statistical methods throughout the data collection and description process, namely, interpreting relevant statistical data from official institutions.. Meanwhile, the correlation method was applied to the analytical examination of the cause-and-effect relationship of processes for which the results of the study have shown possible reciprocal implications, i.e. the reason for the closure of businesses → causing the high number of unemployed → increase in criminogenic factors. The comparative method proved necessary, especially when comparing the same type of statistical data over the years or different types of data.

To present the most accurate and clear data within the framework of qualitative methods and based on the study’s specifics, the normative-legal method and the analysis method proved applicable. The normative-legal method is applied to follow concrete legal definitions and elaborate basic notions related to the topic. Meanwhile, the analysis method was applied throughout the study to provide a clear, concrete analysis of all issues that contribute to a more meaningful presentation of the study.

While this study primarily utilises empirical and criminological data regarding business closures and unemployment, its structural framework remains firmly anchored in the legal definitions and penal standards established by the Criminal Code of the Republic of Kosovo.²⁵

Consequently, the legal analysis herein does not aim to provide a pure dogmatic review of statutory provisions, but rather examines how normative-legal instruments such as criminal sanctions, prosecutorial mandates, and procedural penal orders mediate and respond to socio-economic disruptions.

3 RESULTS, CRIMINOLOGICAL IMPLICATIONS, AND LEGAL-NORMATIVE FRAMEWORK

In this study, the legal dimension serves as a concrete normative basis for defining criminal offences and penalties under the Criminal Code, including procedural enforcement mechanisms, and punitive orders. The study addresses these provisions in connection with the analysed socio-economic factors, rather than as a dogmatic analysis isolated within the criminal-legal framework.

Meanwhile, in the context of addressing the closure of businesses, as well as the possible implications for the increase in unemployment in the country and also the possibility of the potential effect on the creation of criminogenic factors in society, which may consequently lead to an increase in criminal offences, the discussion based on concrete study results and their presentation will be carried out gradually and in mutual interrelation. However, we must emphasise that

“the new system established in 1999 by the international community has also impacted on the socio-cultural life here. Experts that came from different countries have brought their experiences in establishing institutions and drafting laws that were adopted by the Kosovo Parliament. Those laws were not always responsive to prevention and the fight against crime in Kosovo. On the other hand, due to the limited funds for public research institutions and the lack of experience of private institutions (non-governmental organisations), criminological education and research failed to contribute to policymaking and to be the promoter of development in the field of criminology. More to the point, for individual researchers it is very difficult to conduct such research due to the lack of systematised data, reports, up-to-date books and scholarly journals, etc.”(sic).²⁶

Consequently, even today, challenges arise in the field of data recording by the relevant institutions and mechanisms called upon to fulfil such a process.

To present the data on the real situation of business closures in our country in more detail, we will present the study data gradually. In this section, we must initially emphasise that

“currently, Kosovo has 38 municipalities, 1,467 settlements, with a total population of 1,780,021 inhabitants, in a total area of 10,896 km². The municipality with the largest population is the Municipality of Prishtina with a total population of 198,897 inhabitants, while the municipality with the smallest population is the Municipality of Partesh with 1,787 inhabitants.”²⁷

In this section, we present data for the entire study period and for each municipality separately. Finally, we will assess the comparability of the number of businesses closed to track the numerical movement of this process over the years.

So, to better reflect the studied issue, we emphasise that, in this study, the independent variables will be the study years, for which data will be gradually presented, including data for the years 2021 to 2025, as well as the municipalities of the Republic of Kosovo, while, year after year, the dependent variables will be followed by presenting statistical data through which the studied situation will be clarified.

In this regard, Table 1 and Table 6 (see the Appendix) present the number of business closures in the country during 2021. The data show clear differences in business closures across municipalities and categories. In total, 1,556 businesses closed during 2021. The largest number of closures occurred among individual businesses, with around 1,348, and the Municipality of Pristina led with the highest figure, with 297 closed businesses. This situation can be interpreted as evidence that business closures increase unemployment, but it may also help explain the possible absence of deviant behaviour in the capital.

Table 1 and Table 6 (see the Appendix) also show the number of business closures in the country during 2022. The data show clear differences in business closures across municipalities and categories. In total, 1,752 businesses were closed during 2022. Even in this year, the data show that most closures were individual businesses, with about 1,500 such businesses, and the Municipality of Pristina led with 347 closed businesses. Consequently, this situation may also reflect business closures that contribute to increased unemployment and create criminogenic factors, which may explain the higher presence of deviant behaviour in the capital.

In addition, Table 1 and Table 6 (see the Appendix) show the number of business closures in the country in 2023. Even so, the numerical differences in business closures across municipalities and categories are clearly noticeable. In total, 1,591 businesses closed in 2023. Even in this year, the data show that most closures are individual businesses (about 1,358), and the Municipality of Pristina again leads with 273 closed businesses.

Consequently, this situation may also reflect how business closures increase unemployment and create criminogenic factors, which may help explain the higher presence of deviant behaviour in the capital.

Table 1 and Table 6 (see the Appendix) show the number of business closures in the country in 2024. Even so, the numerical differences in business closures across municipalities and categories are clear. In total, 1,624 businesses closed during 2024. Even in this year, the data show that most closures are individual businesses (about 1,337), and the Municipality of Pristina again leads with 300 closed businesses. Consequently, this situation may also reflect business closures contributing to increased unemployment and the creation of criminogenic factors, which may explain the higher presence of deviant behaviour in the capital.

Table 1 and Table 6 (see the Appendix) also show the number of business closures in the country during 2025. Even so, the numerical differences in business closures across municipalities and categories are noticeable. In total, 1,345 businesses closed during 2025. Even in this year, the data show that most closures are individual businesses (about 1,101), and the Municipality of Pristina again leads with 247 closed businesses. Consequently, this situation may also imply that business closures increase unemployment and create criminogenic factors, which may explain the higher presence of deviant behaviour in the capital.

To provide a more comprehensive, narrower-dimensional treatment of the data, we focus on the independent variable, the time period 2021 to 2025 at the country level; the dependent variables show movement over the years but, overall, make it clear that 7,868 businesses closed during this time. If the categorisations of closed businesses are the dependent variables, then from 2021 to 2025, most of these closures were individual businesses, with 6,644. Ultimately, this situation, in a broader dimension, can be interpreted as a possible implication of the closure of businesses at the national level, in the increase in unemployment also at the national level, but also in the creation of criminogenic factors, which can also explain possible implications in the presence of deviant behaviours at the national level. The analysis of the main findings supports the possible reciprocal implications highlighted above (see Table 1 below).

Viewed from another criminological perspective and always in search of an accurate analysis of the rate of business closures in relation to active businesses in the country, from the analysed data, the situation for the study period is presented in Table 2 below:

The tabular data above show that the rate of business closure in the country remains high. In total, during the study period, there are 55,932 active businesses, but the business closure rate is also high, with 7,868 businesses (14.06%). In comparison, the business closure rate remains stable over the years. In some cases, an increase in active businesses is accompanied by an increase in closed businesses.

Alongside the high rate of business closures, another socio-economic concern is the high rate of unemployment. In fact, this situation continues year after year and has become a widespread social concern. Not only in our society, but especially among young people, the inability to find work remains a major concern that prevents them from securing the income needed for a normal life.

Since the study aims to present objective data for the country, the independent variables are the study years, 2021 to 2025, while the dependent variables are the different percentages, which show how they change year after year.

In this regard, looking specifically at the employment issue and from official data, it shows that “in 2021, the employment rate is 31.1%, the unemployment rate is 20.7%, while the inactivity rate is 60.7%. LFS data²⁹ show that the percentage of people employed part-time for 2021 is 6.7%. Self-employment (as a percentage of employees) for this year is 19.1%. The percentage of people employed in precarious work (people who are self-employed and have no employees and those who work unpaid in a family business) was 12.7%. Trade, construction, manufacturing, and education continue to employ half of the employed. Regarding the labour force participation, which is 39.3% in this period, the number of women belonging to the labour force was 22.0%, while men were 56.6%. The youth unemployment rate is 38.0%.”³⁰

On the other hand,

“compared to the previous year (2021), the labour force participation rate has decreased by 0.7%. In 2022, the employment rate was 33.8%, the unemployment rate was 12.6%, and the inactivity rate was 61.4%. LFS data show that part-time employment was 6.0%, self-employment was 17.2% of employees and precarious work was 13.3% (including self-employed persons without other employees and unpaid family business employees). The sectors of trade, construction, education, manufacturing as well as public administration and defence continue to employ over half of the working population. Women accounted for 22.0% of the labour force, while men represented 55.5% out of a total participation rate of 38.6%. The youth unemployment rate was 21.4%.”³¹

Looking at 2023,

“compared to the previous year (2022), the labour force participation rate has increased by 2.1%. In 2023, the employment rate was 33.3%, the unemployment rate was 10.9%, and the inactivity rate was 59.3%. LFS data show that part-time employment was 6.3%, self-employment was 17.2% of employees and precarious work was 15.3% (including self-employed persons without other employees and unpaid family business employees). The sectors of trade, construction, education, manufacturing as well as public administration and defence continue to employ over half of the employed. Women accounted for 24.2% of the labour force, while men represented 57.8% out of a total participation rate of 40.7%. The youth unemployment rate was 17.3%.”³²

During 2024,

“compared to the previous year (2023), the labour force participation rate increased by 42.5%. In 2024, the employment rate was 38.6%, the unemployment rate was 10.8%, and the inactivity rate was 56.8%. LFS data show that part-time employment was 6.9%, self-employment was 16.6% of employees and precarious work was 14.5% (including self-employed persons without other employees and unpaid family business employees). The sectors of trade, construction, manufacturing, education as well as public administration and defence continue to employ over half of the working population. Women accounted for 25.9% of the labour force, while men represented 60.6% out of a total participation rate of 43.2%. The youth unemployment rate was 19.5%”³³. 31 Kosovo Agency of Statistics (KAS), Labor Force Survey 2022 (Series 5: Social Statistics, Republic of Kosovo, Office of the Prime Minister 2023) 1. 32 Kosovo Agency of Statistics (KAS), Labor Force Survey 2023 (Series 5: Social Statistics, Republic of Kosovo, Office of the Prime Minister 2024) 5. 33 Kosovo Agency of Statistics (KAS), Labor Force Survey 2024 (Series 5: Social Statistics, Republic of Kosovo, Office of the Prime Minister 2025) 5.

The tabular data are as follows:

Consequently, business closures should not be viewed only as an economic process but also as a factor that may directly contribute to increased unemployment in the country. Meanwhile, unemployment is known in criminological literature as a criminogenic factor that causes poverty and, with it, the possibility of people being involved in illegal activities. In fact,

“the rise in crime in many countries around the world today can be explained, among other factors, by the impact of unemployment. In almost all countries where unemployment has increased, a rise in various forms of crime is also observed”³⁵.

Therefore, the analysis of the main findings aims to argue the possible implications of unemployment in the increase in criminal offences in the country and thus in the higher level of punishments.

Given the potential impact of business closures on the country's rising unemployment rate, an increase in citizens' emigration is also evident. Official data clearly shows this trend, making it a current concern. Official data shows the situation as follows:

Although population migration is not the primary empirical object of this criminological and legal analysis, it is integrated into the discussion as a critical secondary socio-economic phenomenon closely tied to labour market distress and business closures, thereby providing a more comprehensive contextual background for the study.

Consequently, at a time when Kosovar society is facing problems of a social, political, and economic nature, and when “Kosovo's security institutions have not developed the necessary capacity to guarantee the security of all Kosovo citizens,”³⁷ there is a lot of work to be done for an even more pronounced standardisation of a life lived in better conditions. Many citizens, disappointed with the current reality, are choosing migration as a solution, which also contributes to the decline of our country's young population.

Compared with the high figures for business closures over the years, the accompanying data suggest possible implications not only for rising unemployment but also for citizens fleeing the country. The implications should also be considered in another dimension, especially the possibility that this process may lead to the emergence of criminogenic factors in society. So, although these implications may not be direct, society and the state must remain vigilant about their possibility. Based on the data presented for the independent variables, which remained unchanged over the study years, the dependent variables show a significant trend: both the number of accused persons and the number of convicted persons increased. Rather than trending downward as expected in a democratic society, the statistical data unfortunately show an increasing trend. Consequently, the findings presented in tabular form look as follows:

Although the number of accused and convicted persons presented above is based on official data that refer directly to registered cases, the figures do not necessarily reflect the actual number of illegal behaviours in society. Such a situation stems from the fact that “in the practice of criminality research, problems arise regarding the accuracy of statistical evidence because it happens that the data do not correspond to what actually happened. For this reason, during criminological research and the treatment of criminality records, the phenomenon of the “dark number”, or even the phenomenon of the “excess number” of criminality in a country must always be taken into account”³⁹ and this of course applies in this case as well.

Such a situation, even in dimensions beyond the statistical aspect, makes it clear that there is indeed a logical connection, namely a possible negative implication of the high number of business closures in the country → increasing unemployment → increasing criminogenic factors. The increase in criminogenic factors on the other hand means a greater possibility of the involvement of persons in the commission of criminal offences in which case “the criminal offense is illegal act which is defined by law as a criminal offense, the features of which are defined by law and for which the criminal sanction or compulsory treatment measure is defined by law.”⁴⁰ However, the effectiveness of the punitive policy and in this sense the increase in the number of convicted persons, may have been influenced by the application of “punitive order as an instrument of criminal case resolution outside of the main trial has a great criminal-legal, criminal-procedural and criminal policy importance.

Through this instrument Kosovo legislator aimed to increase the effectiveness of the courts work in resolution of court cases.”(sic)⁴¹ Meanwhile, the increase in the number of convicted persons may also have affected the effectiveness of the prosecution of the perpetrators of criminal offences, all the more so because “the role of the public prosecutor is extremely important in the Kosovo system, for a number of reasons. It is a young state, for which an effective fight against crime is essential to strengthen the structures of the new state institutions”.⁴² However, we should not ignore the ever-increasing efficiency of the judicial system itself, and in particular in the process “of (a) reviewing and properly implementing existing sentencing rationales, sentencing ranges, statutory provisions, unifying opinions, reasoning provisions, control by appellate courts, sentencing scholarship, and judicial training and (b) adopting new measures”⁴³ by the responsible state bodies.

At first glance, a comparative review of the statistical data on unemployment rates (Table 3) and the number of convicted persons (Table 5) may seem counterintuitive or even suggest an inverse trend in certain years of the analysed period (2021–2025). Specifically, while 2021 recorded the highest unemployment rate (20.7%), it showed significantly fewer convictions (6,317), whereas 2024 had a lower unemployment rate (10.8%) but saw a sharp increase in convictions (15,259).

However, this dynamic does not invalidate the core criminological proposition; rather, it underscores the multifaceted and non-linear nature of crime causation.

While economic deprivation and unemployment are critical baseline criminogenic factors, particularly for survival-driven offences, institutional enforcement, investigative capacity, and judicial efficiency also shape criminality. The marked increase in convictions in the study's later years cannot be attributed to economic indicators alone. Instead, it must be analysed alongside stronger law enforcement responses, the public prosecutor’s office's proactive role in tackling institutional backlogs, and the Kosovo judicial system's increased institutional efficiency. While business closures and subsequent unemployment broaden the risk of economic instability, state law enforcement policies, procedural reforms (such as the expanded application of punitive orders), and the judiciary's evolving operational capacity ultimately shape the number of official convictions.

4 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

After a detailed treatment of the study's chosen topic, the data support the possible implications of business closures, including increased unemployment and the emergence of criminogenic factors in the country. Furthermore, we conclude that the study findings helped achieve the first objective because the literature review and analysis identified possible links between business closures, increases in unemployment, and increases in criminogenic factors in the country. Furthermore, the study’s findings highlight gaps in the correlative treatment of the relevant phenomenon in both the theoretical context and the empirical prism. The statistical findings indicate the achievement of the study’s second objective because the high rate of business closure continues to exist over the years in the country, which also makes clear the possible implication of this process in the increase in the unemployment rate, as well as in the appearance of criminogenic factors in the country.

Analysis demonstrates that the third objective has also been fulfilled because the data, presented in clear tabular form, make it clear that no correlative study of this treatment interrelationship has been found before. Consequently, this study is unique and offers a clear, easily understandable reflection of the problem studied. The study’s findings argue that its fourth objective has also been achieved, since the following recommendations are derived and offered.

Addressing the correlation between business closures, high unemployment rates, migration, and the emergence of criminogenic factors is an important area for treatment not only in the social context but also in the legal one, and not only in the theoretical but also in the empirical aspect.

This research demonstrates that business closures are a continuous process. The data clearly show that individual businesses are most affected by such closures, which requires active state policy support for newly created businesses.

Attention is also drawn to the possible implications of business closures in increasing the number of unemployed people in society; consequently, the state should have a more active employment policy. It clearly argues that the number of unemployed and inactive people in society is very high and that young people continue to remain the most disadvantaged group due to their inability to find an adequate job, despite the professional preparation they may have.

Another point highlighted is the possible implications of unemployment in the high migration of the population.

Additionally, a current societal concern addressed in the text is that international migration is also reducing the total population in the country.

Recent evaluation indicates that the number of criminal offences in the country has recently increased and, in this sense, the number of convicted persons, while official data evidence this.

There is a strong emphasis on the necessity of applying specific and planned measures in terms of linking education with the labour market, preserving existing jobs for citizens, supporting individual businesses and creating jobs, especially for young people, creating concrete programmes to support the possible reactivation of closed businesses, financial support for new businesses, providing easier access to credit for small businesses, eventual assistance for businesses in difficulty, etc.

A clear need to overcome the problematic situations discussed above is emphasised, which can also be achieved through opening opportunities for foreign investment in the country, improving meritocracy in employment, and creating more appropriate working conditions.

Ultimately, the findings of the study argue the necessity of institutional coordination, the compilation of concrete state programmes and the undertaking of preventive measures to improve and overcome such a problematic situation .

1. Ademi M, ‘The Role of the Intelligence Service in the Prevention of Organized Crime in Kosovo’ (2022) 10(2) Sociology and Criminology 1000254 <https://www.longdom.org/ open-access/the-role-of-the-intelligence-service-in-the-prevention-of-organized-crime-inkosovo-93735.html> accessed 24 June 2026

2. Altindag DT, ‘Crime and Unemployment: Evidence from Europe’ (2012) 32(1) International Review of Law and Economics 145 <https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.irle.2011.10.003> accessed 24 June 2026

3. Baliqi B, Politikat Publike dhe Qeverisja (Konrad Adenauer Stiftung 2017)

4. Beka T, ‘Konkurrenca dhe Konsumatori në Kosovë’ (Book of proceedings 3-rd ICIS: Third International Conference on: “Interdisciplinary Studies”, 5 March 2016) 197

5. Desku B and Ramaj B, ‘Unemployment in Kosovo in the Last Ten Years 2002–2012’ (2013) 4(10) Mediterranean Journal os Social Sciences 191 <https://www.richtmann.org/ journal/index.php/mjss/article/view/1175> accessed 24 June 2026

6. Dika I, ‘Largimi i trurit dhe faktorët që ndikojnë’ (2023) 2 Revista Shqiptare Social Ekonomike 81

7. Drápal J and Plesničar M, ‘Sentencing Elsewhere: Structuring Sentencing Discretion in Post-Communist Europe’ (2025) 31 European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research 251 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10610-023-09568-4> accessed 24 June 2026

8. Farrell G and Tilley N, ‘Crime Opportunity Theory: The State of the Art’ (2026) 15(12) Crime Science 1 <https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-026-00275-z> accessed 24 June 2026

9. Gjika I and Qurku R, ‘Economic Policies to Help SMEs in the Face of Covid-19, Experiences and Suggestions’ (Covid - 19 Economy Impact: Book of Proceedings, Mediterranean University, 2020) 133

FOOTNOTES

REFERENCES

1. Ademi M, ‘The Role of the Intelligence Service in the Prevention of Organized Crime in Kosovo’ (2022) 10(2) Sociology and Criminology 1000254 <https://www.longdom.org/open-access/the-role-of-the-intelligence-service-in-the-prevention-of-organized-crime-inkosovo-93735.html> accessed 24 June 2026
2. Altindag DT, ‘Crime and Unemployment: Evidence from Europe’ (2012) 32(1) International Review of Law and Economics 145 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irle.2011.10.003> accessed 24 June 2026
3. Baliqi B, Politikat Publike dhe Qeverisja (Konrad Adenauer Stiftung 2017)
4. Beka T, ‘Konkurrenca dhe Konsumatori në Kosovë’ (Book of proceedings 3-rd ICIS: Third International Conference on: “Interdisciplinary Studies”, 5 March 2016) 197
5. Desku B and Ramaj B, ‘Unemployment in Kosovo in the Last Ten Years 2002–2012’ (2013) 4(10) Mediterranean Journal os Social Sciences 191 <https://www.richtmann.org/journal/index.php/mjss/article/view/1175> accessed 24 June 2026
6. Dika I, ‘Largimi i trurit dhe faktorët që ndikojnë’ (2023) 2 Revista Shqiptare Social Ekonomike 81
7. Drápal J and Plesničar M, ‘Sentencing Elsewhere: Structuring Sentencing Discretion in Post-Communist Europe’ (2025) 31 European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research 251 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10610-023-09568-4> accessed 24 June 2026
8. Farrell G and Tilley N, ‘Crime Opportunity Theory: The State of the Art’ (2026) 15(12) Crime Science 1 <https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-026-00275-z> accessed 24 June 2026
9. Gjika I and Qurku R, ‘Economic Policies to Help SMEs in the Face of Covid-19, Experiences and Suggestions’ (Covid - 19 Economy Impact: Book of Proceedings, Mediterranean University, 2020) 133
10. Gjinovci A and Gjinovci D, ‘Favoritism Practices, Nepotism, and Corruption in Public Administration: Impacts on Employment, Meritocracy, Efficiency, and Institutional Trust. An Institutional and Governance Perspective in Transitional Public Sectors’ (2026) 3(2) European Journal of Management, Economics and Business 202 <https://doi.org/10.59324/ejmeb.2026.3(2).15> accessed 24 June 2026
11. Hajdari A, ‘Imposition of Punitive Order in Criminal Procedure: In Context of Kosovo’ (2016) 3(8) International Academic Journal of Social Sciences 68 <https://ssrn.com/abstract=2850002> accessed 24 June 2026
12. Hajdari L and Krasniqi J, ‘The Economic Dimension of Migration: Kosovo from 2015 to 2020’ (2021) 8 Humanities and Social Sciences Communications 273 <https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-021-00923-6> accessed 24 June 2026
13. Halili R, Kriminologjia (8th edn, Universiteti i Prishtinës 2016)
14. Harding L and Neamţu M, ‘A Dynamic Model of Unemployment with Migration and Delayed Policy Intervention’ (2018) 51 Computational Economics 427 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-016-9610-3> accessed 24 June 2026
15. Jaha A, Korporatat Publike Financiare Në Kosovë (Rast Studimi: Fondet Pensionale) (Kolegji UBT Fakulteti për Menaxhment, Biznes dhe Ekonomi 2020) 5 <https://doi.org/10.33107/ubt-etd.2020.2770> accessed 24 June 2026
16. Krasniqi L, ‘Criminology and Crime in Kosovo’ in Getoš Kalac AM, Albrecht HJ, and Kilchling M (eds), Mapping the Criminological Landscape of the Balkans: A Survey on Criminology and Crime with an Expedition into the Criminal Landscape of the Balkans (Research Series of the Max Planck Institute for Foreign and International Criminal Law, Series BC: Publications of the Max Planck Partner Group for Balkan Criminology 1, MPIBC 2014) 235
17. Kubrin CE and Weitzer R, ‘New Directions in Social Disorganization Theory’ (2003) 40 Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 374 <https://ssrn.com/abstract=2029097> accessed 24 June 2026
18. Kücher A et al., ‘Firm Age Dynamics and Causes of Corporate Bankruptcy: Age Dependent Explanations for Business Failure’ (2020) 14 Review of Managerial Science 633 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s11846-018-0303-2> accessed 24 June 2026
19. Levitt SD, ‘Alternative Strategies for Identifying the Link Between Unemployment and Crime’ (2001) 17(4) Journal of Quantitative Criminology 377 <https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1012541821386> accessed 24 June 2026
20. Memishi S, ‘Family Economic Inequality and Gender Dynamics in Kosovo: Resource Allocation, Unpaid Work, and Decision-Making (2019–2024)’ (2026) 7(1) Architecture Image Studies 996 <https://doi.org/10.62754/ais.v7i1.977> accessed 24 June 2026
21. Phillips J and Land KC, ‘The Link Between Unemployment and Crime Rate Fluctuations: An Analysis at the County, State, and National Levels’ (2012) 41(3) Social Science Research 681 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2012.01.001> accessed 24 June 2026
22. Raphael S and Winter-Ebmer R, Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime (Discussion Paper 98-19, UC San Diego, Department of Economics 1998) <https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5hb4h56g> accessed 24 June 2026
23. Rexhaj X, Qerimi A and Qerimi F, ‘The Impact of Higher Education on Youth Employability in Kosovo: Key Determinants Affecting the Interface Between Higher Education Provision and Labor Market Needs’ (2026) 6 Open Research Europe 1 <https://doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.21616.2> accessed 24 June 2026
24. Rexhepi BR and Berisha BI, ‘Economic Developments and Employment Growth Policy after the War in Kosovo’ (2022) 20 Review of Economics and Finance 1109 <https://doi.org/10.55365/1923.x2022.20.124> accessed 24 June 2026
25. Skočajič Juvan N and Grizold A, ‘The Complexity of Security in the Western Balkans: Processes and Issues’ (2017) 54(2) Teorija in Praksa 241
26. Venegoni A, ‘Il Pubblico Ministero nel Sistema Giudiziario del Kosovo’ (2024) 62(1) DPCE Online 507 <https://doi.org/10.57660/dpceonline.2024.2090> accessed 24 June 2026

APPENDIX

AUTHOR’S INFORMATION

FUNDING STATEMENT

RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS

EDITORS

ABOUT THIS ARTICLE

DETAILS FOR PUBLICATION

AI DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

АНОТАЦІЯ