BANK-SPECIFIC, ECONOMIC AND LEGAL DETERMINANTS OF PROFITABILITY IN THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA
: Introduction. – 2. Literature Review. – 3. Methodology. – 3.1. The Model. – 3.2. Data. – 4. Results. – 4.1. Stationarity Check. – 4.2. Co-integration Test. – 4.3. Normality Check. – 4.4. Autocorrelation. – 4.5. Heteroskedasticity Examination. – 5. Estimation. – 6. Concluding Remarks.
Abstract
Background:
Bank profitability is more than just a financial indicator; it is a reflection of the health and vitality of the banking sector and the economy as a whole. Profitable banks help to maintain financial stability by increasing resilience, facilitating capital formation and intermediation, promoting innovation and adaptability, and instilling confidence and trust. Hence, profitability is critical in the banking sector since it directly influences policymakers, regulators, and bank management. Therefore, the study will estimate the influence of specific bank and economic-legal determinants on return on assets in the Republic of North Macedonia. Thus, the study aims to estimate the influence of specific bank and economic-legal determinants on return on assets in the Republic of Northern Macedonia.
Methods:
The study employs the methodology of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and covers quarterly data from 2007 to 2022. To conduct the empirical analysis required to identify and assess the factors of bank profitability, quantitative data were gathered primarily from the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank. Return on Assets was used as a dependent variable. The set of factors is composed into two groups: the first includes bank-specific (controlled) factors such as the sectors’ size, credit risk, capital adequacy, liquidity, income diversification, efficiency of operations, and non-performing loans. The second group includes macroeconomic (uncontrolled) factors such as economic growth, inflation, and interest rates.
Results and Conclusions:
Results reveal that the size of the banking sector, the risk of the credit, liquidity, income diversification and non-performing loans have a meaningful but negative influence on the response variable. However, capital adequacy, operational efficiency, GDP and interest rate have an important positive impact. Hence, based on the empirical analyses, to boost profitability, the Macedonian banking system should prioritise asset management as a size indication, raising the non-income ratio to diversify revenue, reducing credit risk and non-performing loans, and maintaining a good liquidity ratio.Furthermore, there is clear evidence that second-level banks should extend beyond national borders. Better loan portfolio management, greater technology with database processing and communication improvements, and expanded technology with database processing and communication improvements can strengthen the ability to deal with the next crisis. Additionally, banks should increase non-interest revenue by employing it as a risk outlet in banking and distributing it across many income-generating enterprises, enhancing profitability. These findings offer insights for bank executives and regulators interested in increasing bank profitability and stability.
Bank profitability is more than just a financial indicator; it is a reflection of the health and vitality of the banking sector and the economy as a whole. Profitable banks help to maintain financial stability by increasing resilience, facilitating capital formation and intermediation, promoting innovation and adaptability, and instilling confidence and trust. Hence, profitability is critical in the banking sector since it directly influences policymakers, regulators, and bank management. Therefore, the study will estimate the influence of specific bank and economic-legal determinants on return on assets in the Republic of North Macedonia. Thus, the study aims to estimate the influence of specific bank and economic-legal determinants on return on assets in the Republic of Northern Macedonia.
Methods:
The study employs the methodology of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and covers quarterly data from 2007 to 2022. To conduct the empirical analysis required to identify and assess the factors of bank profitability, quantitative data were gathered primarily from the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank. Return on Assets was used as a dependent variable. The set of factors is composed into two groups: the first includes bank-specific (controlled) factors such as the sectors’ size, credit risk, capital adequacy, liquidity, income diversification, efficiency of operations, and non-performing loans. The second group includes macroeconomic (uncontrolled) factors such as economic growth, inflation, and interest rates.
Results and Conclusions:
Results reveal that the size of the banking sector, the risk of the credit, liquidity, income diversification and non-performing loans have a meaningful but negative influence on the response variable. However, capital adequacy, operational efficiency, GDP and interest rate have an important positive impact. Hence, based on the empirical analyses, to boost profitability, the Macedonian banking system should prioritise asset management as a size indication, raising the non-income ratio to diversify revenue, reducing credit risk and non-performing loans, and maintaining a good liquidity ratio.Furthermore, there is clear evidence that second-level banks should extend beyond national borders. Better loan portfolio management, greater technology with database processing and communication improvements, and expanded technology with database processing and communication improvements can strengthen the ability to deal with the next crisis. Additionally, banks should increase non-interest revenue by employing it as a risk outlet in banking and distributing it across many income-generating enterprises, enhancing profitability. These findings offer insights for bank executives and regulators interested in increasing bank profitability and stability.
About Authors
Arbenita Kosumi
Dr.Sc., Ass. Prof. at Faculty of Economy, Public University "Kadri Zeka", Gjilan, Republic of Kosovo
arbenita.kosumi@uni-gjilan.net
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9339-7913
Corresponding author, responsible for conceptualization, formal analysis, methodology, software, supervision, validation and writing.
Lutfi Zharku
Dr.Sc., Acos. Prof. Faculty of Economy, Public University "Kadri Zeka", Gjilan, Republic of Kosovo
zharku@gmail.com
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5742-9436
Co-author, responsible for data curation, funding acquisition, investigation, project administration, resources and visualisation.
Competing interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
Disclaimer: The authors declare that their opinion and views expressed in this manuscript are free of any impact of any organizations.
Copyright: © 2024 Arbenita Kosumi and Lutfi Zharku. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Dr.Sc., Ass. Prof. at Faculty of Economy, Public University "Kadri Zeka", Gjilan, Republic of Kosovo
arbenita.kosumi@uni-gjilan.net
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9339-7913
Corresponding author, responsible for conceptualization, formal analysis, methodology, software, supervision, validation and writing.
Lutfi Zharku
Dr.Sc., Acos. Prof. Faculty of Economy, Public University "Kadri Zeka", Gjilan, Republic of Kosovo
zharku@gmail.com
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5742-9436
Co-author, responsible for data curation, funding acquisition, investigation, project administration, resources and visualisation.
Competing interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
Disclaimer: The authors declare that their opinion and views expressed in this manuscript are free of any impact of any organizations.
Copyright: © 2024 Arbenita Kosumi and Lutfi Zharku. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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34. Mishra PK, ‘The Dynamics of Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth in India’ (2011) 4(2) International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research 53.
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37. Nguyen TH, ‘Impact of Bank Capital Adequacy on Bank Profitability Under Basel Ii Accord: Evidence from Vietnam’ (2020) 45(1) Journal of Economic Development 31.
38. Onafowora OA and Owoye O, ‘Can Trade Liberalization Stimulate Economic Growth in Africa?’ (1998) 26(3) World Development 497, doi:10.1016/S0305-750X(97)10058-4.
39. Ozili PK and Uadiale O, ‘Ownership Concentration and Bank Profitability’ (2017) 3(2) Future Business Journal 159, doi:10.1016/j.fbj.2017.07.001.
40. Saeed MS, ‘Bank-Related, Industry-Related and Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Bank Profitability: A Case of the United Kingdom’ (2014) 5(2) Research Journal of Finance and Accounting 42.
41. Tan Y, Floros C and Anchor J, ‘The Profitability of Chinese Banks: Impacts of Risk, Competition and Efficiency’ (2017) 16(1) Review of Accounting and Finance 86, doi:10.1108/RAF-05-2015-0072.
42. Vodová P, ‘Liquidity of Czech Commercial Banks and its Determinants’ (2011) 5(6) International Journal of Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences 1060.
43. Widarjono A, ‘Does the Volatility of Macroeconomic Variables Depress The Profitability of Islamic Banking?’ (2020) 13(1) JEJAK 30, doi:10.15294/ jejak.v13i1.19460.
44. Zahariev A, Angelov P and Zarkova S, ‘Estimation of Bank Profitability Using Vector Error Correction Model and Support Vector Regression’ (2022) 28(2) Economic Alternatives 157, doi:10.37075/EA.2022.2.01.
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2. Albertazzi U, Notarpietro A and Siviero S, An Inquiry into the Determinants of the Profitability of Italian Banks (Bank of Italy Occasional Paper 364, Division of the Bank of Italy 2016).
3. Andrei DM and Andrei LC, ‘Vector Error Correction Model in Explaining the Association of Some Macroeconomic Variables in Romania’ (2015) 22 Procedia Economics and Finance 568, doi:10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00261-0.
4. Athanasoglou PP, Brissimis SN and Delis MD, ‘Bank-Specific, Industry-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability’ (2008) 18(2) Journal of international financial Markets, Institutions and Money 121, doi:10.1016/ j.intfin.2006.07.001.
5. Athanasoglou PP, Delis M and Staikouras C, Determinants of Bank Profitability in the South Eastern European Region (Working Paper 47, Bank of Greece 2006) doi:10.2139/ ssrn.4163741.
6. Athari SA, ‘Domestic Political Risk, Global Economic Policy Uncertainty, And Banks’ Profitability: Evidence from Ukrainian Banks’ (2021) 33(4) Post-Communist Economies 458, doi:10.1080/14631377.2020.1745563.
7. Bace E, ‘Bank Profitability: Liquidity, Capital and Asset Quality’ (2016) 9(4) Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions 327.
8. Barros CP, Ferreira C and Williams J, ‘Analysing the Determinants of Performance of Best and Worst European Banks: A Mixed Logit Approach’ (2007) 31(7) Journal of Banking & Finance 2189, doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.11.010.
9. Berger AN and Bouwman CHS, ‘How Does Capital Affect Bank Performance During Financial Crises?’ (2013) 109(1) Journal of Financial Economics 146, doi:10.2139/ ssrn.1739089.
10. Bikker JA and Hu H, ‘Cyclical Patterns in Profits, Provisioning and Lending of Banks and Procyclicality of the New Basel Capital Requirements’ (2002) 55(221) PSL Quarterly Review 143, doi:10.13133/2037-3643/9907.
11. Caliskan MMT and Lecuna HKS, ‘The Determinants of Banking Sector Profitability in Turkey’ (2020) 11(1) Business and Economics Research Journal 161, doi:10.20409/ berj.2020.242.
12. Coccorese P and Girardone C, ‘Bank Capital and Profitability: Evidence from a Global Sample’ (2021) 27(9) The European Journal of Finance 827, doi:10.1080/ 1351847X.2020.1832902.
13. De Leon MV, ‘The Impact of Credit Risk and Macroeconomic Factors on Profitability: The Case of the ASEAN Banks’ (2020) 15(1) Banks and Bank Systems 21, doi:10.21511/ bbs.15(1).2020.03.
14. Demirgüç-Kunt A and Huizinga H, ‘Bank Activity and Funding Strategies: The Impact on Risk and Returns’ (2010) 98(3) Journal of Financial Economics 626, doi:10.1016/ j.jfineco.2010.06.004.
15. Dickey DA and Fuller WA, ‘Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root’ (1979) 74(366a) Journal of the American Statistical Association 427, doi:10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531.
16. Dietrich A and Wanzenried G, ‘Determinants of Bank Profitability Before and During the Crisis: Evidence from Switzerland’ (2011) 21(3) Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 307, doi:10.1016/j.intfin.2010.11.002.
17. Dietrich A and Wanzenried G, ‘The Determinants of Commercial Banking Profitability in Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries’ (2014) 54(3) The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 337, doi:10.1016/j.qref.2014.03.001.
18. Djalilov K and Piesse J, ‘Determinants of Bank Profitability in Transition Countries: What Matters Most?’ (2016) 38 Research in International Business and Finance 69, doi:10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.03.015.
19. Duho KCT, Onumah JM and Owodo RA, ‘Bank Diversification and Performance in An Emerging Market’ (2020) 16(1) International Journal of Managerial Finance 120, doi:10.1108/IJMF-04-2019-0137.
20. Elsas R, Hackethal A and Holzhäuser M, ‘The Anatomy of Bank Diversification’ (2010) 34(6) Journal of Banking & Finance 1274, doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.11.024.
21. Ercegovac R, Klinac I and Zdrilić I, ‘Bank Specific Determinants of EU Banks Profitability after 2007 Financial Crisis’ (2020) 25(1) Management: Journal of Contemporary Management Issues 89, doi:10.30924/mjcmi.25.1.5.
22. Fungacova Z, Turk R and Weill L, ‘High Liquidity Creation and Bank Failures’ (2021) 57 Journal of Financial Stability 100937, doi:10.1016/j.jfs.2021.100937.
23. Garoui N, Sessi F and Jarboui A, ‘Determinants of Banks Performance: Viewing Test by Cognitive Mapping Technique (A Case of Biat)’ (2013) 3(1-2) International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences 22.
24. Goddard J, Molyneux P and John OS Wilson, ‘The Profitability of European Banks: A Cross‐Sectional and Dynamic Panel Analysis’ (2004) 72(3) The Manchester School 363, doi:10.1111/j.1467-9957.2004.00397.x.
25. Heffernan S and Fu M, ‘The Determinants of Bank Performance in China’ (SSRN, 25 August 2008) 30. Kosmidou K, ‘The Determinants of Banks' Profits in Greece During the Period of EU Financial Integration’ (2008) 34(3) Managerial Finance 146, doi:10.1108/ 03074350810848036.
31. Kosmidou K, Tanna S and Pasiouras F, ‘Determinants of Profitability of Domestic UK Commercial Banks: Panel Evidence from the Period 1995-2002’ (Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005) vol 45, 1.
32. Li X and other, ‘The Effect of Revenue Diversification on Bank Profitability and Risk During the COVID-19 Pandemic’ (2021) 43 Finance Research Letters 101957, doi:10.1016/j.frl.2021.101957.
33. Menicucci E and Paolucc G, ‘The Determinants of Bank Profitability: Empirical Evidence from European Banking Sector’ (2016) 14(1) Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting 86, doi:10.1108/JFRA-05-2015-0060.
34. Mishra PK, ‘The Dynamics of Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth in India’ (2011) 4(2) International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research 53.
35. Molyneux P and Thornton J, ‘Determinants of European Bank Profitability: A Note’ (1992) 16(6) Journal of Banking & Finance 1173, doi:10.1016/0378-4266(92)90065-8.
36. Neely MC and Wheelock DC, ‘Why Does Bank Performance Vary Across States?’ (1997) 79(2) Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review 27, doi:10.20955/r.79.27-40.
37. Nguyen TH, ‘Impact of Bank Capital Adequacy on Bank Profitability Under Basel Ii Accord: Evidence from Vietnam’ (2020) 45(1) Journal of Economic Development 31.
38. Onafowora OA and Owoye O, ‘Can Trade Liberalization Stimulate Economic Growth in Africa?’ (1998) 26(3) World Development 497, doi:10.1016/S0305-750X(97)10058-4.
39. Ozili PK and Uadiale O, ‘Ownership Concentration and Bank Profitability’ (2017) 3(2) Future Business Journal 159, doi:10.1016/j.fbj.2017.07.001.
40. Saeed MS, ‘Bank-Related, Industry-Related and Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Bank Profitability: A Case of the United Kingdom’ (2014) 5(2) Research Journal of Finance and Accounting 42.
41. Tan Y, Floros C and Anchor J, ‘The Profitability of Chinese Banks: Impacts of Risk, Competition and Efficiency’ (2017) 16(1) Review of Accounting and Finance 86, doi:10.1108/RAF-05-2015-0072.
42. Vodová P, ‘Liquidity of Czech Commercial Banks and its Determinants’ (2011) 5(6) International Journal of Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences 1060.
43. Widarjono A, ‘Does the Volatility of Macroeconomic Variables Depress The Profitability of Islamic Banking?’ (2020) 13(1) JEJAK 30, doi:10.15294/ jejak.v13i1.19460.
44. Zahariev A, Angelov P and Zarkova S, ‘Estimation of Bank Profitability Using Vector Error Correction Model and Support Vector Regression’ (2022) 28(2) Economic Alternatives 157, doi:10.37075/EA.2022.2.01.
45. National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia Financial Stability, Banking Regulations and Resolution Department, 2022.
46. Banking Law of the Republic of North Macedonia, Official Gazette No. 122/21,
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Keywords
- Bank Profitability, ROA, VECM, internal factors, macroeconomic and legal factors.
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How to cite it?
- Kosumi A and Zharku L, ‘Bank Specific and Economic: Legal Determinants of Profitability in the Republic of North Macedonia’ (2024) 7(2) Access to Justice in Eastern Europe 212-33 https://doi.org/10.33327/AJEE-18-7.2-a000209
