ISSN 2663-0583 (Online)
ISSN 2663-0575 (Print)
  • Home
  • The Mirror Reflection of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in The Western Balkans: Opening New Conflicts as a Distraction
"

The Mirror Reflection of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in The Western Balkans: Opening New Conflicts as a Distraction

Summary: 1. Introduction. – 2. Why are the Western Balkans a Solid Ground for Russian Political Influence? – 3. Russian Influence in Serbia and its Reflected Scenarios in Kosovo. – 4. Conclusions

Full Text:

DOI

HTML Abstract About Author(s) References Reviews

  Background: The Western Balkan region has long struggled under extensive pressure and influence from Russia and the West. World developments have occasionally echoed tensions among nations in the region, including a prolonged EU and NATO membership process, which has increased the possibility of Russia’s influence, especially after the aggression in Ukraine. This article analyses the increase in Russia – Ukraine tensions and its direct correlation with the increase of tensions in the Western Balkans through hybrid war methods understood through Zhyhlei and Syvak’s definition: “a fragmentary and situational combination of different methods and theories of war, their integration into different spheres, especially political, religious, ideological, ethical, economic and informational.”5 The higher Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, the higher the pressure on Serbia to fuel tensions in the Western Balkans. This pressure comes through direct threats, media propaganda, and influence on parallel structures and financial support for CSOs, through which Russia increases its influence in the Balkans through Serbia as its closest ally. This influence strategy is particularly important for Russia to undermine the power and influence of the West and NATO in former Yugoslav states, especially those with open conflicts which serve as a global distraction from a possible power decline in Ukraine.

Methods: Through discourse and thematic analysis, this article analyses local, regional, and international media, data, and publications of international organisations, press releases of international and regional institutions, conclusions of distinguished scientists and heads of state over the current situation in the Western Balkans, and interviews with representatives of CSOs and institutions in Kosovo. The influence of Russian aggression in Ukraine, with Russia’s pressure to increase tensions in the Western Balkans, has been analysed in the framework of Western unipolar influence and Russia’s attempts to return to multipolarity.

Results and Conclusion: Among others, it is concluded that Russian influence is present in the Western Balkans and seeks to destabilise the region by activating passive conflicts from the past or opening new conflicts to defer international attention from the power decline in Ukraine, which did not produce the results that Russia had expected. This is possible through Serbia, Russia’s closest ally. The solution to prevent Russian influence and any future conflicts among Balkan states is to accelerate NATO and EU’s integration of Western Balkan countries.

Abstract

 Background: The Western Balkan region has long struggled under extensive pressure and influence from Russia and the West. World developments have occasionally echoed tensions among nations in the region, including a prolonged EU and NATO membership process, which has increased the possibility of Russia’s influence, especially after the aggression in Ukraine. This article analyses the increase in Russia – Ukraine tensions and its direct correlation with the increase of tensions in the Western Balkans through hybrid war methods understood through Zhyhlei and Syvak’s definition: “a fragmentary and situational combination of different methods and theories of war, their integration into different spheres, especially political, religious, ideological, ethical, economic and informational.”5 The higher Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, the higher the pressure on Serbia to fuel tensions in the Western Balkans. This pressure comes through direct threats, media propaganda, and influence on parallel structures and financial support for CSOs, through which Russia increases its influence in the Balkans through Serbia as its closest ally. This influence strategy is particularly important for Russia to undermine the power and influence of the West and NATO in former Yugoslav states, especially those with open conflicts which serve as a global distraction from a possible power decline in Ukraine.

Methods: Through discourse and thematic analysis, this article analyses local, regional, and international media, data, and publications of international organisations, press releases of international and regional institutions, conclusions of distinguished scientists and heads of state over the current situation in the Western Balkans, and interviews with representatives of CSOs and institutions in Kosovo. The influence of Russian aggression in Ukraine, with Russia’s pressure to increase tensions in the Western Balkans, has been analysed in the framework of Western unipolar influence and Russia’s attempts to return to multipolarity.

Results and Conclusion: Among others, it is concluded that Russian influence is present in the Western Balkans and seeks to destabilise the region by activating passive conflicts from the past or opening new conflicts to defer international attention from the power decline in Ukraine, which did not produce the results that Russia had expected. This is possible through Serbia, Russia’s closest ally. The solution to prevent Russian influence and any future conflicts among Balkan states is to accelerate NATO and EU’s integration of Western Balkan countries.

About Authors

Judita Krasniqi

Ph.D. in Social Sciences: Political Science and Public Administration, University of Warsaw, Poland; Researcher at Kosovo Center of Diplomacy, Prishtina, Republic of Kosovo
juditakrasniqi@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7821-6379
Lead author: responsible for writing and research. Competing interests: Any competing interests were declared by all co-authors. Disclaimer: All authors declare that their opinions and views expressed in this manuscript are free of any impact of any organizations.Translation: The article was written in English language, and additionally was edited and checked for proof reading by all authors.


Labinot Hajdari

Ph.D. in Social Sciences: Political Science and Public Administration, University of Warsaw, Poland; Lecturer at Collegium Civitas, Warsaw, labinot.hajdari@civitas.edu.pl, https://orcid.org/0000-0002- 3568-0320
Co-author, responsible for writing, methodology and data collection


Alban Maliqi

Ph.D. in National Security, Professor Assistant at Universum International College, Republic of Kosovo alban.maliqi@universum-ks.org

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0694-637X

Corresponding author, responsible for writing and data collection.


Kimberly DeGroff Madsen

Ph.D. in Public Affairs: Public Management and Policy Analysis - Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Performance Initiatives Manager, State of Utah Legislature, Utah, USA kdmadsen@iu.edu
https://orcid.org/0000-0000-0003-0432-454XCo-author, responsible for writing and proofreading.

Managing editor – Mag Polina Siedova. English Editor – Nicole Robinson.


Copyright: © 2023 Judita Krasniqi, Labinot Hajdari, Alban Maliqi and Kimberly DeGroff Madsen. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

 

References

 

  1. Agatonović M, ‘How much money Serbia receives from the EU and how much it risks to lose?’ (European Western Balkans, 14 December 2022). <https://europeanwesternbalkans. com/2022/12/14/how-much-money-serbia-receives-from-the-eu-an-how-much-it-risks-to- lose> accessed 10 June 2023.

  2. Bechev D, ‘Russia’s Strategic Interests and Tools of Influence in the Western Balkans’ (Atlantic Council, 20 December 2019) <https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia- strategic-interests-and-tools-of-influence-in-the-western-balkans> accessed 10 June 2023.

  3. Bieber F and Tzifakis N, The Western Balkans as a Geopolitical Chessboard? Myths, Realities and Policy Options (Policy Brief, BiEPAG June 2019) <https://ssrn.com/abstract=3406295> accessed 10 June 2023.

  4. Dimitrov MM, ‘Analysis of Strategic stakeholders in the Western Balkans’ (2022) 40 (4) Security and Defence Quarterly 27, doi: 10.35467/sdq/154884.

  5. Fisher B, ‘Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and the Doctrine of Malign Ilegal Operations’ (2022) 5 (4-2 spec) Access to Justice in Eastern Europe 25, doi: 10.33327/AJEE-18-5.4-a000456.

  6. Hajdari L and Krasniqi J, ‘The Economic Dimension of Migration: Kosovo from 2015 to 2020’ (2021) 8 (1) Humanities and Social Sciences Communications 273, doi: 10.1057/s41599-021- 00923-6.

  7. Handel M, Weak States in the International System (Frank Cass 1981).

  8. Headley J, Russia and the Balkans: Foreign Policy from Yeltsin to Putin (Hurst & Co 2008).

  9. Kononenko V, From Yugoslavia to Iraq: Russia’s Foreign Policy and the Effects of Multipolarity (UPI Working Papers 42, UPI; FIIA 2003).

  10. Larsen H, ‘The Western Balkans between the EU, NATO, Russia and China’ (2020) 263 CSS Analyses in Security Policy doi: 10.3929/ethz-b-000412853.

  11. Mahmutaj N, ‘Russian Government Policy in the Western Balkans’ in Mihr A, Sorbello P and Weiffen B (eds), Securitization and Democracy in Eurasia: Transformation and Development in the OSCE Region (Springer 2023) ch 8, 125, doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-16659-4_8.

  12. Morina E, ‘The politics of dialogue: How the EU can change the conversation in Kosovo and Serbia’ (European Council on Foreing Relations, 15 March 2023) <https://ecfr.eu/publication/ the-politics-of-dialogue-how-the-eu-can-change-the-conversation-in-kosovo-and-serbia> accessed 10 June 2023.

  13. Pezarat Correia P de, Manual de Geopolítica e Geoestratégia, vol 2 Análise Geoestratégica do Mundo em Conflito (Almedina 2010).

  14. Ramani S, ‘Why Serbia is Strengthening its Alliance with Russia’ (HuffPost News, 15 February 2016) <https://www.huffpost.com/entry/why-russia-is-tightening_b_9218306> accessed 10 June 2023.

  15. Reid EA, ‘Third Rome or Potemkin village: Analyzing the Extent of Russia’s Power in Serbia, 2012–2019’ (2021) 49 (4) Nationalities Papers 728, doi: 10.1017/nps.2020.62.

  16. Samokhalov V, ‘Russia in the Balkans: Great Power Politics and Local Response’ (2019) 21 (2) Insight Turkey 189, doi: 10.25253/99.2019212.12.

  17. Samorukov M, ‘Surviving the War: Russia-Western Balkan Ties After the Invasion of Ukraine’ (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 25 April 2023) <https://carnegieendowment.org/ politika/89600> accessed 10 June 2023.

  18. Secrieru S,’Russia in the Western Balkans: Tactical Wins, Strategic Setbacks’ (European Union Institute for Security Studies, 2 July 2019) <https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/russia-western- balkans#_make_the_balkans_multipolar_again> accessed 10 June 2023.

  19. Serwer D, ‘The Easy Way Out Leads to Failure’ (Peacefare.net, 9 March 2023) <https://www. peacefare.net/2023/03/09/the-easy-way-out-leads-to-failure> accessed 10 June 2023.

  20. Stronski P and Himes A, ‘Russia’s Game in the Balkans’ (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 06 February 2019) <https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/02/06/russia-s-game-in- balkans-pub-78235> accessed 10 June 2023.

  21. Vuksanovic V, Steric L and Bjelos M, Public Perception of Serbian Foreign Policy in the Midst of the War in Ukraine: WBSB Survey in Serbia, Country Report 2022 (QKSS 2022).

  22. Zhyhlei I, Legenchyk S and Syvak O, ‘Hybrid War as a form of Modern International Conflicts and its Influence on Accounting Development’ (2020) 11 (1) Przegląd Wschodnioeuropejski 191, doi: 10.31648/pw.5980.

Reviews for article

Add a Review

Reviews are moderated and will be published after verification!
All comments not related to reviews of the article will be deleted!

 

Keywords

  • Western Balkans, the war in Ukraine, Russia’s influence, geopolitics, conflict, great powers

Publication history

  •  Submitted on 13 Jun 2023 / Revised 24 Jun 2023 / Approved 25 Jun 2023 Published: 01 Aug 2023

How to cite it?

  • J Krasniqi, L Hajdari, A Maliqi, K DeGroff Madsen ‘The Mirror Reflection of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in The Western Balkans: Opening New Conflicts as a Distraction’ 2023 3 (20) Access to Justice in Eastern Europe 12-26. https://doi.org/10.33327/AJEE-18-6.3-a000317