The Mirror Reflection of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in The Western Balkans: Opening New Conflicts as a Distraction
Summary: 1. Introduction. – 2. Why are the Western Balkans a Solid Ground for Russian Political Influence? – 3. Russian Influence in Serbia and its Reflected Scenarios in Kosovo. – 4. Conclusions
Methods: Through discourse and thematic analysis, this article analyses local, regional, and international media, data, and publications of international organisations, press releases of international and regional institutions, conclusions of distinguished scientists and heads of state over the current situation in the Western Balkans, and interviews with representatives of CSOs and institutions in Kosovo. The influence of Russian aggression in Ukraine, with Russia’s pressure to increase tensions in the Western Balkans, has been analysed in the framework of Western unipolar influence and Russia’s attempts to return to multipolarity.
Results and Conclusion: Among others, it is concluded that Russian influence is present in the Western Balkans and seeks to destabilise the region by activating passive conflicts from the past or opening new conflicts to defer international attention from the power decline in Ukraine, which did not produce the results that Russia had expected. This is possible through Serbia, Russia’s closest ally. The solution to prevent Russian influence and any future conflicts among Balkan states is to accelerate NATO and EU’s integration of Western Balkan countries.
Abstract
Background: The Western Balkan region has long struggled under extensive pressure and influence from Russia and the West. World developments have occasionally echoed tensions among nations in the region, including a prolonged EU and NATO membership process, which has increased the possibility of Russia’s influence, especially after the aggression in Ukraine. This article analyses the increase in Russia – Ukraine tensions and its direct correlation with the increase of tensions in the Western Balkans through hybrid war methods understood through Zhyhlei and Syvak’s definition: “a fragmentary and situational combination of different methods and theories of war, their integration into different spheres, especially political, religious, ideological, ethical, economic and informational.”5 The higher Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, the higher the pressure on Serbia to fuel tensions in the Western Balkans. This pressure comes through direct threats, media propaganda, and influence on parallel structures and financial support for CSOs, through which Russia increases its influence in the Balkans through Serbia as its closest ally. This influence strategy is particularly important for Russia to undermine the power and influence of the West and NATO in former Yugoslav states, especially those with open conflicts which serve as a global distraction from a possible power decline in Ukraine.
Methods: Through discourse and thematic analysis, this article analyses local, regional, and international media, data, and publications of international organisations, press releases of international and regional institutions, conclusions of distinguished scientists and heads of state over the current situation in the Western Balkans, and interviews with representatives of CSOs and institutions in Kosovo. The influence of Russian aggression in Ukraine, with Russia’s pressure to increase tensions in the Western Balkans, has been analysed in the framework of Western unipolar influence and Russia’s attempts to return to multipolarity.
Results and Conclusion: Among others, it is concluded that Russian influence is present in the Western Balkans and seeks to destabilise the region by activating passive conflicts from the past or opening new conflicts to defer international attention from the power decline in Ukraine, which did not produce the results that Russia had expected. This is possible through Serbia, Russia’s closest ally. The solution to prevent Russian influence and any future conflicts among Balkan states is to accelerate NATO and EU’s integration of Western Balkan countries.
About Authors
Judita Krasniqi
Ph.D. in Social Sciences: Political Science and Public Administration, University of Warsaw, Poland; Researcher at Kosovo Center of Diplomacy, Prishtina, Republic of Kosovo
juditakrasniqi@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7821-6379
Lead author: responsible for writing and research. Competing interests: Any competing interests were declared by all co-authors. Disclaimer: All authors declare that their opinions and views expressed in this manuscript are free of any impact of any organizations.Translation: The article was written in English language, and additionally was edited and checked for proof reading by all authors.
Labinot Hajdari
Ph.D. in Social Sciences: Political Science and Public Administration, University of Warsaw, Poland; Lecturer at Collegium Civitas, Warsaw, labinot.hajdari@civitas.edu.pl, https://orcid.org/0000-0002- 3568-0320
Co-author, responsible for writing, methodology and data collection
Alban Maliqi
Ph.D. in National Security, Professor Assistant at Universum International College, Republic of Kosovo alban.maliqi@universum-ks.org
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0694-637X
Corresponding author, responsible for writing and data collection.
Kimberly DeGroff Madsen
Ph.D. in Public Affairs: Public Management and Policy Analysis - Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Performance Initiatives Manager, State of Utah Legislature, Utah, USA kdmadsen@iu.edu
https://orcid.org/0000-0000-0003-0432-454XCo-author, responsible for writing and proofreading.
Managing editor – Mag Polina Siedova. English Editor – Nicole Robinson.
Copyright: © 2023 Judita Krasniqi, Labinot Hajdari, Alban Maliqi and Kimberly DeGroff Madsen. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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Publication history
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Submitted on 13 Jun 2023 / Revised 24 Jun 2023 / Approved 25 Jun 2023 Published: 01 Aug 2023
How to cite it?
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J Krasniqi, L Hajdari, A Maliqi, K DeGroff Madsen ‘The Mirror Reflection of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in The Western Balkans: Opening New Conflicts as a Distraction’ 2023 3 (20) Access to Justice in Eastern Europe 12-26. https://doi.org/10.33327/AJEE-18-6.3-a000317
